Frequently Asked Questions

BitcoinCycle Clock is a free, visual dashboard that shows where Bitcoin currently sits within its approximately four-year market cycle. It synthesizes multiple on-chain and price-based indicators into a single clock dial so you can gauge cycle positioning at a glance. The project is part of Vibed Lab, a collection of focused tools for investors and developers.

The clock maps Bitcoin’s recurring market cycle onto a 12-hour dial. Starting at roughly 6 o’clock with the post-bear Accumulation phase, the hand sweeps through Early Markup, Blow-off Top, and Distribution as the cycle progresses. The hand’s position is determined by a weighted composite of several independent on-chain and price indicators, each contributing its own assessment of where the market stands.

BitcoinCycle Clock uses four primary indicators: MVRV Z-Score, Pi Cycle Top, Puell Multiple, and Stock-to-Flow. Each metric captures a different dimension of Bitcoin’s market behavior — valuation, momentum, miner economics, and scarcity. By combining them, the clock reduces the blind spots that any single indicator would have on its own.

No. BitcoinCycle Clock is strictly an educational and informational tool. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The cycle positioning shown is based on historical patterns that may not repeat in the future. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The clock is not a prediction engine — it is a positioning tool. It tells you where the current data places Bitcoin relative to historical cycle patterns, not where the price will go next. Past cycles have followed a broadly similar structure, but the magnitude, timing, and shape of each cycle have varied. Treat the clock as one input among many, not as a crystal ball.

Indicator data is sourced from publicly available on-chain analytics APIs and Bitcoin blockchain data. Price data is aggregated from major exchanges. All data is fetched in real time and cached briefly on the client side to reduce redundant network requests. We do not alter or editorialize the raw data in any way.

The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization — the value of all coins priced at the time they last moved on-chain. When the Z-Score is high, it suggests the market is overvalued relative to its aggregate cost basis; when it is low, it suggests undervaluation. Historically, extreme Z-Score readings have coincided with major cycle tops and bottoms.

The Pi Cycle Top indicator tracks two moving averages of Bitcoin’s price: the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average multiplied by two. When the shorter average crosses above the longer one, it has historically signaled that a cycle top is imminent. The indicator earned its name because the ratio of the two time periods (350 / 111) approximates Pi.

The Puell Multiple measures the daily value of newly mined Bitcoin (in USD) divided by the 365-day moving average of that same metric. A high Puell Multiple means miners are earning significantly more than their annual average, which historically coincides with overheated markets. A low reading suggests miner stress and has often marked attractive accumulation zones.

Stock-to-Flow is a scarcity model that divides Bitcoin’s existing supply (stock) by its annual production rate (flow). Because Bitcoin’s issuance halves every four years, its stock-to-flow ratio increases over time, theoretically supporting higher prices. While the model has tracked historical price trends reasonably well, it is a simplified framework and does not account for demand-side dynamics.

The dashboard fetches fresh indicator data each time you load the page. Responses are cached locally in your browser for approximately five minutes to avoid excessive API calls. After the cache expires, the next page load will pull the latest available data. There is no manual refresh needed — simply revisit the page.

Yes, you are welcome to share screenshots of the BitcoinCycle Clock dashboard on social media, blogs, or educational content. We only ask that you include a link back to cycle.vibed-lab.com so others can explore the live dashboard themselves. Please do not crop out the site name or present the data as your own proprietary analysis.

Cycle positioning is inherently imprecise. On-chain data can lag, exchange prices vary slightly across platforms, and the indicators themselves are backward-looking by design. Labeling values as approximate is an honest acknowledgment that no model can pinpoint an exact cycle position with certainty. The clock is best understood as a directional guide, not a precision instrument.

Bitcoin is not obligated to repeat past patterns. Structural changes — such as spot ETF approvals, sovereign adoption, or major regulatory shifts — could compress, elongate, or fundamentally alter future cycles. If the historical pattern breaks, the clock’s indicators will reflect the new data, but their positioning relative to past norms may become less meaningful. This is precisely why we advise against using the clock as a sole decision-making tool.

The Fear and Greed Index is a composite sentiment indicator ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It aggregates market momentum, social media activity, volatility, exchange flows, and other signals. Extreme fear readings have historically aligned with accumulation opportunities near cycle bottoms, while extreme greed readings have coincided with cycle tops. Read our detailed guide in the Learn section.

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart uses logarithmic regression to overlay colored bands on Bitcoin's historical price chart. Each band represents a different standard deviation from the long-term growth trend — from dark blue (extremely undervalued) through green (fair value) to dark red (extremely overvalued). It provides a quick visual reference for long-term valuation but should be used alongside cycle indicators, not in isolation.

Both approaches have strengths. Technical analysis (charts, patterns, moving averages) is faster and better for short-term trading decisions. On-chain analysis (blockchain data, wallet movements, exchange flows) is more authentic and better for long-term positioning. BitcoinCycle Clock integrates both approaches. Check our Learn section article comparing the two methods.

BitcoinCycle Clock was built by Jay, a Bitcoin investor since 2017 who has lived through two full market cycles. The project is part of Vibed Lab, a suite of investor-focused tools. Jay’s motivation was to create the simple, at-a-glance cycle dashboard he wished he had during the 2017 bull run — one that replaces information overload with a single, intuitive reading.